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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still